The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently announced that Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Burma (Myanmar) would be terminated based on a determination that “conditions have improved” and that Burmese nationals can safely return home. In announcing the decision, Secretary Kristi Noem stated that Burma has made “notable progress in governance and stability,” citing an end to its state of emergency, plans for elections, ceasefire agreements, and improvements in local governance. But there is a statutory question and a geopolitical one that deserves deeper scrutiny.
THE TPS FRAMEWORK: A LEGAL REQUIREMENT TO REVIEW CONDITIONS, NOT TO REINTERPRET THEM
Under federal law, TPS is meant to be temporary and humanitarian, protecting nationals of countries experiencing ongoing armed conflict, natural disaster, or extraordinary conditions that prevent safe return. At least 60 days before a TPS designation expires, the Secretary of Homeland Security must review the conditions in the designated country, in consultation with other federal agencies; determine whether the conditions that justified TPS still exist; and extend TPS for 6, 12, or 18 months or terminate it based on those factual findings. If the original conditions persist, TPS must be extended. If they no longer exist, TPS must be terminated.
Yet the recent termination announcement comes against a backdrop of widespread reporting that Burma is in the midst of an intensifying civil war, with the junta controlling barely 14% of the country.
A STRANGE COINCIDENCE: RISING U.S. INTEREST IN BURMA'S RARE EARTH ELEMENTS
Early this week, Reuters reported that the Trump administration was approached with competing proposals on how the U.S. should reposition itself in Burma's civil war—not for humanitarian reasons, but for access to the country's vast rare earth element (REE) deposits. Whether intentional or accidental, these actions fueled speculation that rare earth politics—not improved conditions—may be influencing U.S. posture toward the junta.
WHY ANY RAPPROCHEMENT WITH BURMA'S JUNTA WOULD BE A STRATEGIC MISTAKE
Experts point to three reasons why aligning with the junta would harm long-term U.S. interests:
1. The junta cannot deliver access to rare earths.
These mines are in Kachin State, controlled by resistance forces, not the junta.
2. The junta is losing the civil war.
The military now controls only a fraction of the country and is steadily losing ground.
3. The junta is aligned with China and Russia.
Expecting it to favor U.S. economic interests is unrealistic.
SO WHY TERMINATE TPS NOW?
If the U.S. government determined that Burma's conditions have legitimately improved, termination is lawful. But that conclusion is difficult to reconcile with worsening conflict conditions.
This raises a critical concern: Is TPS being terminated because Burma is safe—or because Burma has rare earth elements?
TPS SHOULD NOT BECOME A CASUALTY OF RARE EARTH POLITICS
If U.S. policymakers engage more deeply in Myanmar, they should support actors who actually control rare earth regions and avoid propping up a junta that cannot deliver stability or strategic mineral access.
CONCLUSION
Humanitarian protections must not be overshadowed by global competition for minerals. TPS decisions must remain grounded in statutory criteria—not geopolitical resource calculations.